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Banerjee M.♦, Lipniacki T., d’Onofrio A.♦, Volpert V.♦, Epidemic model with strain-dependent transmission rate,
COMMUNICATIONS IN NONLINEAR SCIENCE AND NUMERICAL SIMULATION, ISSN: 1007-5704, DOI: 10.1016/j.cnsns.2022.106641, Vol.114, pp.106641-1-17, 2022 Abstract:
Persistent epidemic can lead to the emergence of new virus strains due to virus mutations. This work is devoted to the SIR model with strain-dependence of infected individuals due to virus mutations and a continuous strain variable. Characterization of epidemic progression is obtained for a strain-dependent infectivity function in numerical simulations and with some analytical estimates. Taking into account limited infection-induced immunity, transition from recovered to susceptible compartment is considered. Different scenarios of epidemic progression are identified. In the case of a monotonically growing transmission rate as a function of strain, only one epidemic outbreak is observed. However, if the transmission rate is a non-monotonic function, then multiple outbreaks can occur. Keywords:
epidemic model, strain-dependent transmission rate, reinfection Affiliations:
| Banerjee M. | - | Indian Institute of Technology (IN) | | Lipniacki T. | - | IPPT PAN | | d’Onofrio A. | - | University of Trieste (IT) | | Volpert V. | - | University Lyon (FR) |
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